Likely scenarios of Putin attacking other countries — Bild

German newspaper Bild has published an assessment outlining possible scenarios in which Russia could strike other countries or critical infrastructure. The analysis, focused on President Vladimir Putin’s forces, identifies five potential flashpoints.

The first scenario involves an attack on the seabed. Moscow has specialized units and deep-diving submarines capable of targeting data cables, power lines, pipelines, and offshore industrial sites. Because such sabotage occurs in open water, attribution could be delayed.

A second possibility, termed the "Narva trap," envisions armed men appearing in the Estonian city of Narva while Russia denies involvement. The third concerns control of Gotland, a strategically important island in the Baltic Sea. A Russian surprise deployment of air- and ship-defense systems there could block NATO reinforcement of the Baltic states.

The Arctic is another potential flashpoint. Moscow might use protection of its citizens in the Russian settlement of Barentsburg on Norway’s Spitsbergen archipelago as a pretext to pressure NATO member Norway or seize strategic positions.

Finally, the "Baltic nightmare" describes a Russian thrust through the Suwałki Corridor from Belarus toward Kaliningrad that would cut the Baltic states off from the rest of NATO by land before reinforcements arrive.