ISW Contradicts Putin’s September Territorial Claims, Cites Airspace Violations

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has directly contradicted President Vladimir Putin’s claim that Russian forces captured 1,301 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory in September. According to ISW calculations, Russian troops actually relinquished 80.81 km² of previously held ground during the month, a figure that rises to 175.18 km² when including areas entered but not retained.

Analysts described Putin’s statements as “so far from reality they resemble hallucinations,” adding that such assertions continue to shape a fabricated picture of combat that reinforces the Kremlin’s cognitive-warfare efforts. It remains unclear whether Putin is aware of the discrepancy or is receiving distorted data from his military leadership.

Separately, ISW highlighted a growing pattern of airspace violations over Moldova and other European states, suggesting Moscow is attempting to normalize such incursions by steadily increasing their frequency and scale.

The findings align with earlier fact-checks that identified repeated exaggerations in Putin’s battlefield claims, including overstated proximity to Ukrainian cities and a sharp decline in actual territorial gains compared to previous periods.