Since August 24, 2026

Prospects for Winter Energy Truce Dim, RBC-Ukraine Sources Say

Sep 21, 2026 06:17

Russian forces are increasing the share of jet-powered Shahed drones in attacks to 50-60%, with plans to reach 80% by November, while introducing new cruise missiles and air-launched jet drones with ambitious production targets.

Prospects for a winter "energy truce" between Russia and Ukraine remain low, according to sources cited by RBC-Ukraine, as Moscow escalates its aerial campaign against Ukrainian energy infrastructure with new weapons and higher production rates.

Jet-powered variants of the Shahed one-way attack drone now account for 50 to 60 percent of Russian strikes, sources said, with the share slated to reach 80 percent by November. The shift reflects a broader effort to overwhelm air defenses with faster, harder-to-intercept platforms.

Two new systems are entering the arsenal. The S8000 "Banderyol" cruise missile has been added to the strike mix, while the "Dan-T" jet-powered drone — designed for launch from fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters — is moving toward mass production. Russian planners aim to manufacture up to 2,000 Dan-T units by year-end and as many as 14,000 in 2025.

The expanded drone and missile portfolio signals Russia's intent to sustain high-intensity strikes on the Ukrainian power grid through the winter, undermining any informal understandings to spare energy facilities. Ukrainian officials have previously warned that Moscow is stockpiling long-range weapons for a renewed winter campaign.

RBC-Ukraine's sources did not specify whether diplomatic channels remain active on an energy ceasefire, but the production figures and deployment timeline suggest the Kremlin is preparing for continued escalation rather than restraint.

Source: https://t.me/smolii_ukraine/164101

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