Wheat prices in Poland rise on risks of reduced exports from Ukraine

Wheat prices at Polish ports are rising as traders factor in mounting risks to grain exports from the Black Sea region.

The Polish market is responding to expectations that Ukrainian wheat shipments will fall during the 2026/27 marketing year. Ukraine is a major supplier in the region, and any sustained shortfall would tighten availability for importers and transit markets alike.

The principal driver of the expected drop is the effective blockage of the Greater Odesa ports, Ukraine’s main deep-water outlet for bulk grain. These terminals handle a significant share of large-scale shipments, and their disruption removes substantial export capacity.

Cargo has been partially redirected through the Danube River and overland corridors, but these alternatives are unable to fully offset the lost throughput of the deep-water terminals. Until normal operations resume at the Odesa ports, Polish wheat markets are likely to remain under upward price pressure.