Ukraine's trade deficit reached $41.9 billion in the first seven months of 2026, up nearly $11 billion year-on-year, while GDP grew only 0.4% in the second quarter. International reserves fell to $48.7 billion in August as the central bank sold $4.85 billion net. The government unveiled a 2026-2027 action plan, which the Ukrainian Institute for the Future called a blueprint for endless war.
Ukraine's trade deficit reached $41.9 billion in the first seven months of 2026, up nearly $11 billion year-on-year, while GDP grew only 0.4% in the second quarter, signaling deepening economic imbalances heading into autumn.
In July alone, imports exceeded exports by more than three times. International reserves fell from $51.2 billion to $48.7 billion in August, with the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) selling $4.85 billion net on the foreign exchange market.
Against this backdrop, the government presented its 2026–2027 action program. The Ukrainian Institute for the Future (UIF) assessed the plan as more of a blueprint for transitioning the state into a condition of endless war with a set of measurable targets.
Analysts question whether the NBU can maintain the hryvnia within the 44.5–45 per dollar range and how realistic the government's plan for the "endless war" years is. Full analysis is available in UIF's macroeconomic digest.
https://t.me/AnatoliyAmelin/16686