The Ukrainian government presented its 2027 budget on September 15, projecting record spending of UAH 9.9 trillion (89.2% of GDP), a deficit of 15.1% of GDP, and a $91.2 billion external financing requirement, of which $32.6 billion remains unsourced.
On September 15, the Ukrainian government unveiled the 2027 state budget, a document the Ukrainian Institute for the Future (UIF) describes as a full-year war budget with no identified funding source for a significant portion. Total expenditures are set at UAH 9.9 trillion, equivalent to 89.2% of projected GDP, a historic high. The deficit is forecast at 15.1% of GDP, requiring $91.2 billion in external financing — $52.5 billion in grants and $38.7 billion in loans. By comparison, Ukraine received $52.4 billion in external support in 2025. Approximately $32.6 billion of the required financing currently lacks a committed source. State debt is projected to reach 113.9% of GDP, or $262.7 billion, by year-end.
Revenue assumptions are aggressive. The Ministry of Finance targets tax and social security contributions at 40% of GDP, up from 35.7% in 2025. UIF considers 38–38.5% more realistic, implying a revenue shortfall risk of UAH 150–200 billion. The budget also counts on pending tax measures not yet enacted: taxation of digital platforms and international parcels, and a VAT increase to 21%.
Security and defense costs, including in-kind international aid, are estimated at UAH 5.9 trillion ($125 billion), amounting to $340 million per day of war. UIF's full analysis outlines execution risks and potential expenditure reserves.
https://t.me/AnatoliyAmelin/16815
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